Title
General Fund Revenues Update: Actuals and Trends with Sales Tax and Property Taxes (PILOTs and Replacement Tax)
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Issue/Request:
General Fund Revenues Update: Actuals and Trends with Sales Tax and Property Taxes (PILOTs and Replacement Tax)
Key Issues:
Since the revenue estimates for the FY19 Projections and FY20 Forecasts were presented to the Finance and Budget Committee (F&BC), additional data has become available which has helped to refine trends. After reviewing each of the General Fund revenue categories, there are three revenues that should be revised: Sales Tax, Property Tax-Payments in Lieu of Taxes (PILOTs), and Property Tax-Replacement Tax.
-Sales Tax: When the FY19 Projections were presented to the F&BC at the February meeting, there was seven months of Actuals data available (July - January). The trends at that time showed that the Sales Tax was growing at significant rates: FY19 Actuals were 8.04% above FY18 Actuals, and FY19 Actuals were also coming in at 2.74% over the FY19 Budget amounts. When the FY20 Forecast was presented to the F&BC at the March meeting, there were eight months of Actuals data available (July - February). The trends with that additional month of data continued to show strong growth trends: FY19 Actuals were 7.76% above FY18 Actuals, and FY19 Actuals were also coming in 2.57% over the FY19 Budget amounts.
As of the writing of this report, there are now eleven months of Sales Tax Actuals data available (July - May). The updated trends continue to show that the year-to-date (YTD) actuals are greater than prior year (FY18) actuals and current year (FY19) budgeted amounts, but they are not at the same levels as they were at the time of Projections and Forecasts. With eleven months of data, the YTD Actuals for FY19 are now 6.23% above FY18 Actuals, and FY19 Actuals are now 0.86% above FY19 Budget amounts.
As a result of the additional months of Actuals data, it seems appropriate to update the FY19 Projections...
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